Economic Research Institute (IFO), one of the leading thinking institutions in Germany, said that US President Donald Trump’s new customs duties may cause Germany’s exports to the United States to decrease by 38.5 percent.
IFO said in a statement, the results of the latest research on the US’s customs duties of the institute.
In a statement that the US’s new customs duties package will hit the German manufacturing industry, the US and the European Union (EU) have been transferred to the German manufacturing industry by 2.8 percent after the end of the existing pause on customs duties on customs duties.
According to the statement, Germany’s exports to the United States 38.5 percent, China exports to China will decrease by 4.7 percent.
The US customs duties will hit the German automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, especially in the research. Up to 6 percent in the automotive sector is expected to value added losses, this rate in the pharmaceutical sector will increase to 9 percent.
On the other hand, each of the added value in the service sector and agriculture will increase by 0.4 percent due to US tariffs.
The calculations of the IFO were based on the assumption that US President Trump will re -implement special tariffs for the country he announced on April 2 after the 90 -day negotiation that will last until July 9th and implement 50 percent tariffs for EU imports.
In addition to the calculations, drugs and electronic products, as well as steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts of 25 percent of the tariffs were included. However, the EU’s retaliation of possible customs tariffs to the US was not taken into consideration.
IFO Foreign Trade Specialist Andreas Baur said in his assessment, “If US President Trump really puts his customs duty statements into practice, he will have a direct impact on Germany’s US exports.” He said.
Baur said that only the positive effects of trade towards other markets can partially alleviate US losses.
On the other hand, the United States, which is the most important buyer of the goods labeled “Made in Germany”, became Germany’s largest trade partner in 2024 with more than 250 billion euros. In 2024, from Germany to the United States, an annual increase of 2.2 percent of 161.32 billion euros was exported goods. This figure corresponds to 10.35 percent of Germany’s total exports on value.
