The tension between Iran and the USA has moved to a new threshold in recent weeks with its military, political and economic dimensions. Military shipments reflected in the international press, aircraft carrier task groups sent by the USA to the region, and harsh rhetoric from Washington indicate that the possibility of a hot conflict has increased more than it has seen in a long time. The effects of a possible war on Türkiye are among the most discussed topics in Ankara lobbies and security circles. In the analyses, while Türkiye’s statements and mediation attempts calling for moderation on the parties draw attention, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan’s statements that they will close their airspace to attacks against Iran in a possible conflict are considered as an indicator of the efforts of the regional countries to limit an upcoming crisis. This attitude points to a cautious diplomacy aimed at preventing the conflict from turning into a regional conflagration.
CAN IRAN RESIST?
Just as there are those who argue that war is at the doorstep, the number of those who say that the possibility of a direct and all-out Iran-US war is limited in the current situation is significant. Security and military analyzes also emphasize that Iran does not have the capacity to sustain a long-term and high-intensity war due to economic sanctions, high inflation and internal political vulnerabilities. On the US front, it is underlined that the Trump administration tends to avoid the political and economic costs of a new Middle East war.
MIGRATION WAVE CONCERNS
In strategic analyses, Türkiye is concerned about the effects of a possible US-Iran conflict on Türkiye. Ankara evaluates the tension in question within a multi-layered framework, including regional security architecture, energy supply, foreign trade balances, migration pressure and counter-terrorism strategy. Considering Türkiye’s ties with Iran in the fields of energy, trade and logistics, any instability in the Strait of Hormuz or on Iranian territory poses serious risks in terms of energy prices and supply security. It is stated that sudden jumps in global oil and natural gas prices may put direct pressure on Türkiye’s current account balance and inflation outlook. A large-scale instability that may occur in Iran and related geographies also means a new pressure element that may increase the migration burden that Türkiye currently carries.
IRAN’S MILITARY STRATEGY
In the analyzes made It is emphasized that Iran is expected to use a decentralized “Mosaic Defense” model that integrates conventional firepower with irregular warfare experience, layered air defense systems and widespread cyber surveillance capacity.
RISK OF REGIONAL WAR
International relations expert Prof. Dr. Hasan Köni stated that a possible US attack on Iran could lead to a regional war and evaluated: “In such a scenario, Iran’s nuclear facilities and military command structure will be targeted. The Tehran administration may also target US bases in the region and activate proxy forces. This brings with it the risk of the conflict spreading to Iraq, Syria and the Gulf line.”
SCENARIOS FOR Türkiye
Umur Tugay Yücel (Political Scientist and Strategist)
“A limited or large-scale conflict between the USA and Iran will shake the energy markets in the first place. Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz and the critical role of this line in global oil and LNG transportation increases the risk of sudden and sharp fluctuations in energy prices. For Turkey, this situation means a rapid increase in the oil and natural gas import bill and a strengthening of inflation pressure on energy costs.”
IS THERE A TERRORIST RISK?
“Iran is expected to respond to a possible US attack not directly, but largely through proxy elements. This scenario may increase activity in Iraq and Syria. For Türkiye, this situation may pose new risks in the areas of border security, counter-terrorism balances and military operations.
WILL THERE BE MIGRATION?
“Long-term instability or internal security weakness in Iran also means the possibility of a new wave of migration for Turkey. For Turkey, which currently carries a high migration burden, irregular migration originating from Iran may create additional pressure on border management and social balance.”
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO TRADE?
“The US’s additional customs duties and secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran have the potential to directly affect Turkey-Iran trade. There is a risk of cost increase and market loss in many sectors, especially energy, tourism and export items. In addition, “The possibility of regional conflict may bring disruptions in land and sea logistics lines.”
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