The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) blog page in the center of the center “International oil prices on consumer prices and current balance reflections” in the analysis, crude oil prices have a very playful structure and the year can exhibit hard fluctuations during the year, “the developments in the last weeks of the developments in the raw oil prices. It can cause negative effects on the indicators. ” expressions were used.
The Analysis prepared by the Chief Advisor Eren Ocakverdi, Senior Economist Okan Eren, economist M. Koray Kalafatcılar and Assistant Economist Orhun Özel was published on the CBRT’s website.
The analysis stated that the effects of crude oil prices on the economies of the national economies due to recently increasing geopolitical tensions said.
Brent oil barrel price, which had declined to $ 60 at the beginning of May, increased rapidly after the developments and approached 80 dollars, although international prices decreased again with the decrease in tensions, it was stated that it has settled to a higher level compared to the previous period.
In the analysis, it was reported that the magnitude of the increase in prices required to reconsider the possible effects of crude oil prices, although the supply process is interrupted, and the estimated effects of the increases that may occur on the Turkish economy on inflation and current balance were reported in the article.
In the analysis, which has a dynamism that has a high volatility due to both supply and demand developments, “When we look at the recent past, crude oil prices often can be significantly deviated from the annual average. It declined to $ 80 and it was 99 dollars in the year average. ” said.
In the analysis, it is stated that the developments in international crude oil prices for Türkiye, which is the net crude oil importer, brought important macroeconomic effects and the following evaluations were made:
“In this context, the current balance and inflation stands out. As a matter of fact, the increase in crude oil prices directly affects consumer inflation through fuel. The increase in the increase in inflation, which can be created by rising inflation, indirectly affects inflation through exchange rate pressure. “
“We estimate a vector consecutive binding (VAR) model with a bayesçi method to measure the effect of crude oil prices on headline inflation.” He said that the findings obtained, a 10 percent increase in crude oil price increases consumer inflation at ultimately 1 point.
It was recalled that approximately half of the total effect took place in the first quarter and an impact of approximately 0.8 points at the end of one year was assumed that the Brent oil price would be $ 62 in June 2025 in the Inflation Report published in May.
In the analysis, it is possible to say what the above -mentioned flexibility implies with a simple calculation for inflationary prints for the current developments in Brent oil prices. While rising, the total increase at the end of a year is 1.6 points. ” said.
In the analysis that the crude oil prices directly affect the current balance through energy imports and exports, we assume that the increase in oil prices will be reflected directly on the foreign trade figures by assuming the price elasticity of exports and imports in order to calculate this effect. expressions were used.
In the analysis, an average increase of 10 dollars of crude oil price increases, petroleum products imports 5.1 billion dollars, exports of $ 2.2 billion dollars is expected to withdraw.
Therefore, the increase in the price of crude oil in imports of the increase in imports of a significant portion of the analysis will be compensated by the export, “also calculates the net impact on the current account deficit, the balance of payments in the defined foreign trade adaptation items and net transportation revenues (0.3 billion dollars of more than 0.3 billion dollars in the same amount of the same amount). On the current account deficit of 2025, $ 1.2 billion upward risk. ” evaluation.
In summary, crude oil prices have a very volatile structure and can exhibit harsh fluctuations during the year, and the following statements were given:
“Developments in the last weeks have confirmed this situation. Developments leading to sharp rise in crude oil prices, to the extent that they gain a permanent quality, can cause negative effects on basic macroeconomic indicators. The impact on the basic macroeconomic variables that we have made with an increase in the amount of 10 dollars in Brent oil barrel price can be managed.”
