1. BALANCE SHEET SEASON HAS STARTED IN THE USA
The balance sheet period in the USA will accelerate next week. Following the fluctuation in technology stocks, investors will closely monitor the balance sheets of companies operating in the field of artificial intelligence, especially Meta.
Meta, which will announce its balance sheet on Wednesday, is among the major technology companies investing in artificial intelligence data centers and infrastructure.
Investors who have doubts about the sustainability of artificial intelligence investments will closely monitor the balance sheets of these companies.
In addition to chip manufacturers Lam Research and Texas Instruments, the balance sheets to be announced by Tesla will also provide clues about the course of growth in the artificial intelligence sector.
Later in the week, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and GE Aerospace will announce their balance sheets.
2. DATA INTENSIVE SCHEDULE IN CHINA
Important indicators regarding the course of the economy in China will be announced on Monday. In addition to the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, retail sales, industrial production and fixed capital investments for September will be followed. The loan interest rates to be announced on Tuesday are expected to remain constant, as they have been for more than a year.
Despite the uneven recovery in domestic demand and rising energy costs, strong global demand for semiconductors, clean energy technologies and other industrial products continues to support the Chinese economy. Maintaining a delicate balance in its commercial relations with the USA and the European Union, China’s exports maintain their strong course.
According to the latest foreign trade data, China’s exports have increased well above analysts’ expectations, and the country is on track to reach an annual foreign trade surplus of $1 trillion this year, which it exceeded for the first time in 2025. But the strong increase in exports risks escalating tensions between China and its major trading partners.
3. RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR
With the rise in energy and food prices during the Iran war, bonds lost their safe haven function as investors raised their expectations for interest rate increases.
When concerns about the financial situation of developed governments were added to this situation, bonds had difficulty competing with fluctuating stock movements.
The relationship between stocks and bond returns has now become positive for European countries and the USA. This means that when stocks lose value, bond yields are more likely to fall. The relationship was predominantly negative this year, meaning that while stocks were losing value, yields were rising.
4. ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL
The second round of the presidential elections to be held in Brazil on October 25 continues to remain in the focus of the markets after Flavio Bolsonaro’s unexpected victory in the first round.
The country’s financial markets are on edge after the first round of elections. Since the election, stocks have risen 7.7 percent and the Brazilian real has risen nearly 4 percent.
The new poll published by Quaest indicates that there will be a competitive race between the two candidates, showing that Bolsonaro will collect 46 percent of the votes and Lula will receive 44 percent.
Investors believe Bolsonaro’s win will bring tighter fiscal policy. But a significant part of this expectation may already be priced in. The choices made by the economic team and reliable reform signals may further fuel this rise in the markets.
Lula’s return to power may reverse the upward trend in the markets. In this scenario, real, long-term bonds and publicly controlled companies are among the assets that may be most at risk.
5. Türkiye AND INDONESIA’S MSCI PROBLEM
While MSCI, the world’s main financial index regulator, froze some index changes regarding Türkiye until further notice, it announced that it needed more time to evaluate market reforms.
MSCI announced that it has downgraded Indonesia’s stock market status from “emerging market” status and is also preparing to remove it from the indices followed by global investors.
The Central Bank of Indonesia will meet on Wednesday, and Turkish officials will meet on Thursday. The agenda of the meetings will include high energy prices, increasing borrowing costs, artificial intelligence-induced market fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties.
MSCI’s statement that it is preparing to remove Indonesia from the emerging market category and remove it from the indices followed by global investors may lead to significant capital outflows and also increases the pressure on the authorities to increase interest rates.
MSCI warned that it could downgrade Türkiye’s status if market reforms do not meet expectations by mid-2027. This may make the job of the authorities, who are expected to continue reducing the interest rate from 37 percent, even more difficult.
