The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) announced the Real Sector Confidence Index for September. The real sector’s confidence declined in September.
The statement made by the CBRT is as follows:
“The seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) increased by 0.1 points compared to the previous month in September and reached 102.5. The non-seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE) decreased by 0.8 points compared to the previous month and reached 102.0.
The September Economic Tendency Survey results were obtained by weighting and aggregating the responses of 1982 workplaces operating in the manufacturing industry between 1-14 September.
When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are examined, evaluations regarding the general trend, the current total order amount, the total employment in the next three months and the total order amount in the last three months affected the index towards an increase. Evaluations regarding the export order amount in the next three months, the existing finished goods stock, fixed capital investment expenditure and the production volume in the next three months affected the index in a downward direction.
In the evaluations for the last three months, the trend in favor of those reporting an increase in production volume strengthened compared to the previous month and the balance value increased from 1.3 in August to 8.7. The trend in favor of those reporting a decrease in domestic market order quantity turned in favor of those reporting an increase, while the balance value increased from minus 0.5 to 2.6. The trend in favor of those reporting an increase in export order quantity turned in favor of those reporting a decrease, and the balance value decreased from 4.5 to minus 6.1.
While evaluations that current total orders are below seasonal norms weakened compared to the previous month, the balance value increased from minus 15.2 to minus 12.2. Assessments that the current level of finished goods stocks is above seasonal norms strengthened and the balance value increased from 1.9 to 3.1.
In evaluations for the next three months, the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in production volume weakened compared to the previous month and the balance value decreased from 18.4 to 17.9. While the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in export order quantity also weakened, the balance value decreased from 18.4 to 13.0. The trend in favor of those expecting an increase in the domestic market order quantity strengthened and the balance value increased from 14.4 to 16.0. While the upward expectations regarding employment in the next three months strengthened and the equilibrium value increased from 3.7 to 5.2, the upward expectations regarding fixed capital investment expenditure in the next twelve months weakened and the equilibrium value decreased from 5.5 to 4.9.
The trend in favor of those who expect an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who reported an increase in the last three months has strengthened. The equilibrium value regarding the unit cost expectation in the next three months increased from 51.6 to 55.1, and the equilibrium value regarding the unit cost in the last three months increased from 58.0 to 58.4. Increased expectations regarding the sales price in the next three months also strengthened and the equilibrium value increased from 34.5 to 40.8. Annual producer prices (PPI) expectations at the end of the next twelve months decreased by 0.2 points compared to the previous month and reached 31.0 percent.
“The trend in favor of those who stated that they were more pessimistic about the general trend in the current industry compared to the previous month weakened and the balance value increased from minus 13.3 to minus 9.6.”
