Global markets are mixed due to concerns that the climate of reconciliation in the Middle East may be disrupted as a result of targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Increasing tension in the Strait of Hormuz has an impact on the direction of the markets. The winds of peace blowing in the region with the memorandum of understanding signed between the USA and Iran on June 18 were reversed when commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz were targeted.
Axios news site, headquartered in the USA, reported that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships passing through the strait and that retaliation by the USA was possible.
These developments brought to the fore the fragility of the peace talks in the Middle East. Following the news of the attack, an upward movement was observed in oil prices. Although Brent oil increased by 0.7 percent to 72.6 dollars a barrel, it continued to remain at pre-war levels.
While the increase in oil prices triggered inflation risks, no significant change was observed in the pricing in the money markets regarding the interest rate paths of central banks. The possibility that the Fed may raise interest rates once before the end of the year remains strong in the markets.
Analysts noted that investors may find more clues about the steps the bank will take in the coming period in the meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to be published tomorrow.
In addition to these developments, the statements of Fed officials are also followed closely. Fed Board Member Christopher Waller stated that inflation and employment risks have reversed compared to a year ago.
Waller said, “The labor market in the USA seems to be stabilizing. Inflation has started to rise rapidly. This situation requires you to review your approach to policy.” he said.
Last week’s non-farm employment data, which was below expectations, strengthened the expectation that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates in the near future. On the other hand, developments in the technology and semiconductor industry continue to remain in the focus of investors.
Although concerns continue that increasing chip costs, reflected in product prices and reaching the end user, may negatively affect consumer demand, new agreements signed between the leading companies of the sector continue to support the growth expectations for the semiconductor industry.
In this regard, the shares of chip company Broadcom, which announced that it has agreed to expand its partnership with Apple for the development and supply of special chips until 2031, gained nearly 4 percent in value.
On the macroeconomic data side, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54 in June, below expectations.
S&P Global’s services sector PMI data increased by 0.5 points to 51.2 in June compared to the previous month. Composite PMI, which covers the manufacturing and service sectors, also increased by 0.4 points on a monthly basis in June, reaching 51.9.
GOLD ENDED ITS 3-DAY Rising SERIES
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest rate is horizontally at 4.48, and the dollar index is at 100.8 with a limited decrease.
The expectation that increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East may lead central banks to tighter monetary policies by increasing inflationary pressures on energy prices puts pressure on the ounce price of gold. Ounce gold decreased by 0.2 percent yesterday to 4 thousand 165 dollars, ending its rise in the last 3 trading days. An ounce of gold is traded at 4 thousand 123 dollars, with a 1 percent decrease in the new trading day.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.72 percent, the Nasdaq index increased by 1.12 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 0.29 percent. Dow Jones index renewed its closing record. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day negatively.
While European stock markets followed a mixed course with the signals received from the macroeconomic data announced in the region, index futures contracts in the futures markets also maintained this course.
According to data released yesterday, investor confidence in the Eurozone increased in July. In the Eurozone, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and 5.9 percent on an annual basis in May.
Analysts noted that the increase in producer prices exceeded expectations on an annual basis, highlighting the assessment that inflation risks in the region may continue for a while.
Retail sales in the Eurozone increased by 0.2 percent in May compared to the previous month and by 1.6 percent on an annual basis.
On the other hand, developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine War continue to remain in the focus of investors. US President Donald Trump stated that they will hold talks to reach an agreement between Ukraine and Russia at the NATO Summit, which will start today in Türkiye, and said, “We will go to NATO, discuss the issue and I think we will achieve it.” he said.
European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also stated that they will discuss Ukraine’s air defense needs at the NATO Ankara Summit.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 0.26 percent and the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.33 percent, while the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.15 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy increased by 0.27 percent.
In light of current developments, a bearish trend stands out in Asian stock markets due to rising oil prices and valuation concerns regarding the semiconductor industry.
In the semiconductor industry, Samsung Electronics announced its second quarter financial results. The company reported that operating profit rose to 89.4 trillion won (about $58.5 billion).
On the other hand, concerns about whether the growth momentum will support current valuations following the level reached by large-scale data center investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure limited investor appetite. Due to these concerns, Samsung Electronics shares experienced a sharp loss in value.
On the other hand, according to the data announced today in the region, Household Expenditures (Annual) in Japan decreased by 0.4 percent in May, below expectations.
While this situation indicated that spending in the country did not slow down as much as expected, it increased expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would maintain its tight stance.
With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 2.4 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea fell by 8 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China fell by 1.6 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell by 0.7 percent.
NATO SUMMIT BEGINS
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-oriented trend yesterday, rose to 14,424.54 points with a 0.05 percent gain in value.
The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.1 percent in the last evening session compared to the normal session closing.
On the other hand, NATO’s 36th Leaders’ Summit starts today at the Presidential Complex. The summit, hosted by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will last two days. US President Donald Trump, as well as leaders of 31 allied countries and invited countries, will attend the summit.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 46.8220, today it is traded at 46.8370 at the opening of the interbank market, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the news flow from the NATO Summit, which starts today, could be decisive on the direction of the markets.
Stating that the treasury cash balance will be followed domestically, industrial production in Germany and foreign trade balance in the USA will be followed abroad, analysts noted that technically, 14,500 and 14,600 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 14,400 and 14,300 points are support.
