The latest warnings from the scientific world for the AMOC, the main current system that carries the climate balance of the Atlantic, show that global warming is progressing not only with heat waves but also with the weakening of the major systems that sustain the world’s climate. The latest reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Meteorological Organization reveal that extreme heat has brought agriculture and food systems to the brink. The latest warnings of scientists show that the AMOC may weaken faster than thought, and the possibility of approaching the collapse threshold may be higher than previous assessments.
ECOLOGICAL CYCLE IS DISTURBED
According to the scientific community, the weakening mechanism of the AMOC is linked to one of the most visible consequences of global warming. In the North Atlantic, the water must cool and remain salty enough to sink deeply. As the atmosphere warms, sea water cools down more slowly; As Greenland ice melts, more fresh water mixes with the surface. Since fresh water is lighter than salt water, it makes the sinking process more difficult. As subduction decreases, the transport of hot water north also slows down. After a point, this chain becomes a self-expanding cycle of slimming. Exceeding such a threshold could result in harsh winters in Europe, summer droughts, additional sea level rise around the Atlantic, a shift in the tropical precipitation zone, and a weakening of the African and Asian monsoons.
FISHING WILL BE AFFECTED
According to reports by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization, extreme heat threatens the livelihoods, health and labor productivity of more than one billion people. Agricultural workers, farmers, livestock farming communities, fishermen and livelihoods dependent on forest ecosystems are at the forefront of this risk. The most important emphasis of the reports is that extreme heat has become a “risk multiplier” rather than a single weather event. When the temperature increases, not only the productivity of the products decreases; As water stress deepens, the possibility of sudden drought increases.
MEDITERRANEAN ZONE IS RISKY
Reports also show that yield losses in most basic agricultural products accelerate above 30 degrees; For some crops, such as potatoes and barley, the threshold starts at lower levels. In the most common farm animals, stress is generally seen above 25 degrees. It is also stated that the climate crisis means not only product loss but also labor loss. It is emphasized that the Mediterranean basin has become more fragile due to heat waves, drought, forest fires and water stress.
MAY HAVE FOOD PROBLEMS
Water Policy Expert Dursun Yıldız stated that the deterioration in the climate cycle carries serious risks for Turkey and said, “Turkey is located in the east of the Mediterranean climate zone, in a high-risk region in terms of drought, heat waves, forest fires and agricultural water stress. When agricultural production and energy demand in Europe are shaken, Türkiye’s export markets, food prices, tourism season, energy costs and migration pressure may be affected.”
CRITICAL FOR WATER MANAGEMENT
Continuing his warnings, Yıldız said: “Disruption of rainfall regimes in Africa and the Middle East may increase food insecurity and displacement. Changes in sea temperatures in the Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean basins negatively affect fisheries. In short, the weakening of the AMOC is not only a scientific problem of the North Atlantic; “Türkiye’s topics include trade, food security, water management and regional stability.”
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