While optimism that a compromise can be reached between the USA and Iran continues in global markets, risk appetite remains weak due to investors’ tendency to reduce positions before the weekend.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to be decisive on pricing in global markets. While optimism remains that positive results can be obtained from the talks to establish a permanent ceasefire between the USA and Iran, investors’ search for more clarity on the process and their cautious stance against the news flow that may occur over the weekend limit risk appetite.
US President Donald Trump stated that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and said that they are very close to making an agreement with Iran.
Analysts stated that “peace” pricing continues, albeit weakly, in the markets, but it is difficult to eliminate ongoing uncertainties on topics such as the nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the high trend of oil prices in the short term.
While the ceasefire between the parties reduces the risk perception, uncertainties continue as to whether the effects of the war on the macroeconomic outlook will be temporary or more permanent and will put pressure on growth.
Analysts noted that the volatilities observed in oil prices during periods of increased geopolitical tension due to the concentration of oil supply in a certain geography may lead economies with high energy dependence to seek alternatives.
Ongoing concerns about oil supply cause global inflation expectations to rise.
While the US economy continues to navigate the inflation-recession dilemma, the presidential change process at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) increases uncertainties regarding the monetary policies to be implemented in the future.
Some Democratic members of the US Senate demanded that the appointment process of Kevin Warsh, whom Trump nominated as Fed chairman, be halted until the investigations into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Board Member Lisa Cook are closed.
In addition to current developments, the divergent verbal guidance of Fed officials makes it difficult to form expectations regarding the policy steps the bank will take in the coming periods.
On the macroeconomic data side, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased to 207 thousand in the week ending April 11, below expectations. Industrial production in the USA also decreased by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis in March.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest is at 4.28 percent and the dollar index is at 98.2, with a horizontal course. The moderate rise in bond yields shows that financial conditions have not completely relaxed. While the ounce of gold is traded at 4 thousand 794 dollars with an increase of 0.1 percent, the barrel price of Brent oil is at 94 dollars with a decrease of 0.2 percent.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.26 percent, the Nasdaq index increased by 0.36 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 0.24 percent. S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices renewed their closing records. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day mixed.
While a mixed trend stood out in the European stock markets yesterday, the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone in March attracted attention. Inflation in the region was above expectations with 2.6 percent on an annual basis and 1.3 percent on a monthly basis.
While concerns about energy supply in the region continue, the effects of volatility in energy prices on inflation are also becoming evident. In this context, it was noteworthy that the biggest contribution to monthly inflation came from the transportation item.
Foreign trade and current account balance data will be followed in the Eurozone today.
The British economy grew by 0.5 percent on a monthly basis in February, above market expectations. On the other hand, the European Union (EU) Commission offered Google to share search engine data with third parties.
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said that the central bank, which expects more clarity on the reflection of high energy costs caused by the US/Israel-Iran war on the general economy, should remain on hold regarding the change in borrowing costs.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England increased by 0.29 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.36 percent. The CAC 40 index in France fell by 0.14 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell by 0.27 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day mixed.
Although the expectations that the tensions in the Middle East will decrease continue to exist in Asian stock markets, a sell-off trend prevails as investors tend to avoid risk before the weekend.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda made statements limiting interest rate increase forecasts at the press conference he held within the scope of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington.
Ueda noted that in Japan, inflation is caused by a negative supply shock rather than demand, and it is difficult to control this inflation with monetary policy. Following Ueda’s verbal guidance, interest rate hike predictions for the BoJ decreased in the pricing in money markets.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.9 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.4 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 1.3 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China by 0.3 percent near the closing.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 14,201.05 points, losing 0.36 percent of its value.
The April futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 1.36 percent in the last evening session compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 44.8040, today it is traded at 44.8520 at the opening of the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
On the other hand, this evening the expected evaluation of Türkiye by the international credit rating agency S&P will be followed.
Analysts stated that the CBRT’s market participants survey, short-term external debt statistics and housing sales statistics will be followed domestically today, and the current account balance and foreign trade balance data in the Eurozone will be followed abroad today, and noted that technically, 14,100 and 14,000 points in the BIST 100 index are support, while 14,300 and 14,400 points are resistance.
