While concern about customs duties in financial markets, investors closely follow the steps of China to support the economy of China, US companies entering the balance sheet period and the situation of the global business world.
At a time when concern about the increasing protectionist policies of the USA increased, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Spring meetings of the World Bank will be held in Washington next week.
Rae Wee of Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf from New York and Dhara Ranninghe from London, Yörük Bahceli and Karin Strohecker compiled the developments in the next week in the markets.
1. ÇİN’s interest rate decision is expected
China will determine the next Monday indicator interest rates. Investors expect China to take pro -relaxation steps in China’s monetary policy to alleviate the pressure of US additional customs duties on China, which has the second largest economy in the world.
China’s reduction of one and five -year loan interest rates, as they expected, will be the first discount of China since October last year.
Additional customs duties between the US and China have already exceeded 100 percent. While some banks are already undergoing growth forecasts for China, this shows the effect of the trade war.
2. Isn’t that great?
The financial balance of many companies will be announced next week, especially US electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla and Google’s roof company Alphabet. Companies’ profitability and financial estimates in the first quarter will give clues to how the business world keeps up with dizzying changes in the global commercial environment.
Alphabet and Tesla are the first companies that will explain the financial balance sheet among the technology giants called “magnificent seven”. The shares of these major technology companies have recently faced sales pressure on the market.
Investors will closely follow the expenditures for artificial intelligence. In particular, Tesla, whose shares depreciate this year, are closely monitored because of Musk’s close relations with US President Donald Trump.
While the managers of the companies in Wall Street are expected to have explanations about the possible effects of customs duties, the balance sheets of giant companies such as 3M, Boeing, IBM, Merck, Intel and Procter & Gamble will be announced next week.
United Airlines, on Tuesday, said in a statement that the US economy is recession, the financial view may increase in financial appearance. This warning revealed the difficulties faced by companies.
3. Price risk
The pioneering PMI data, which was announced yesterday, gave clues to the markets on the effects of Trump’s additional customs duties.
Although Trump postponed customs duties based on reciprocity, he did not change the 10 %base tax to be applied to imported goods. While the input prices of US -based companies continue to rise before additional customs duties, Canada’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has fallen to the lowest level of the last five years.
The US manufacturing PM Input Prices Index will be closely monitored to see the effects of additional customs duties on inflation. The index had risen harshly in March.
While the processors expect at least three interest rate reductions from the US this year, some banks are suspicious of the possibility of an interest rate reduction of the US Federal Bank (FED) due to the risk of inflation.
4. Washington Passengers
The financial world officials set out to Washington for joint spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, one of the biggest meetings of their sectors this year.
There will be an increase in employment under the title of the meeting. But it is almost certain that the pessimistic expectations of trade tension and growth are on the agenda while competing with each other to meet with the Trump administration of finance ministers and central bank presidents from all over the world.
In meetings, the main lines of Trump’s approach to cooperation with institutions shaped by the Bretton Woods agreement such as the IMF and the World Bank may become clear.
One of the important articles of the agenda will be the Global Economy Expectation Report of the IMF, which will be released on Tuesday. IMF President Kristalina Georgieva underlined that the US’s additional customs duties pose a “serious risk”, and called for a constructive way to reduce the tension of US commercial partners.
5. Restlessness
Investors who think that they have left behind the worst effects of the turmoil caused by additional customs duties are cautious waiting.
The shares traded on the Wall Street rose from one year’s lowest levels, and the return difference of company bonds according to the treasury bonds gathered a little bit and declined after the postponement of high customs duties of the US Treasury bond market of 29 trillion dollars.
Trump is currently intending to issue additional customs duties to the automotive sector.
But with the shaking of confidence, the next step of the US administration is eagerly awaited with the continuing of high customs duties and recession concern for China.
The dollar has been preparing to show its worst monthly performance since 2022, while Bank of America said that international investors have sold shares in the US stock exchanges intensively in the last two months. Deutsche Bank predicts that the continuation of a change in change in foreign investors can lead to “large amounts of negative dollars flow”.
Although the markets rarely watch in a straight line, the tendency is difficult to reversed quickly.
